The global energy landscape is undergoing a Triad Energy Transition, a shift driven by three interwoven forces: the move away from fossil fuels, the rise of advanced technologies, and geopolitical realignments in energy supply. As nations push for decarbonisation, the growing demand for clean, reliable power is accelerating nuclear energy’s resurgence. At the same time, the rapid expansion of AI-driven industries and electrification is reshaping electricity consumption patterns, increasing the need for stable baseload power. Meanwhile, geopolitical instability and efforts to reduce dependence on Russian and Chinese energy supplies have further elevated nuclear energy’s strategic importance.
Amid this burgeoning need for nuclear energy, years of under investment in uranium exploration and development have left a critical supply gap that existing projects simply cannot fill. Canadian mining corporation GoviEx claims they have found a significant uranium deposit, with their Muntanga project in South Eastern Zambia in the words of Govind Friedland, the company's Executive Chairman, outstanding as ‘one of the few advanced uranium projects ready to help meet this demand’. Given Canada’s longstanding role as a key uranium supplier to Europe, facilitated by trade agreements like CETA and historical nuclear partnerships with countries such as France and Germany, GoviEx’s expansion into Zambia presents a strategic opportunity. It not only strengthens Canada’s role in the global uranium market but also aligns with European efforts to secure stable, long-term nuclear fuel sources amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Zambia, already renowned for its rich copper reserves, possesses significant untapped uranium deposits that could position the country as a key player in the global nuclear economy. As European nations accelerate their nuclear expansion to reduce dependence on Russian energy and meet ambitious decarbonization targets, securing stable uranium supplies has become a strategic priority. This shift is exemplified by Italy, the Czech Republic, Sweden and the Netherlands, among others, pledging to expand nuclear power in March 2024. Not only by extending the life of existing reactors, but also by building new plants and investing in the development of new types of reactors, such as small modular reactors. This cooperation underscores the broader European effort to bolster energy security and ensure long-term access to nuclear fuel. With increasing interest from foreign investors, including European firms looking to diversify their supply chains. With increasing interest from foreign investors, the development of Zambia’s uranium sector offers a unique opportunity to diversify its economy, create jobs, and generate much-needed revenue. This article examines Zambia’s uranium potential, exploring how the country can unlock its benefits while mitigating the associated risks to ensure sustainable and inclusive development.
The European Union's drive to reduce dependence on Russian uranium is part of a broader strategy to secure energy sovereignty, diversify supply chains, and meet ambitious decarbonisation targets. With nuclear energy playing a central role in this transition, evidenced by France’s expanding nuclear fleet and Germany’s reconsideration of its phase-out, stable and ethically sourced uranium supplies are now a geopolitical priority. However, traditional suppliers such as Kazakhstan and Niger face political and logistical uncertainties, highlighting the need for alternative sources. Zambia, with its vast untapped uranium reserves, well-established mining infrastructure, and investor-friendly regulatory framework, presents a compelling opportunity to fill this gap. The country’s uranium sector, particularly projects like Muntanga, could provide a reliable, long-term supply for the EU, reducing reliance on geopolitically unstable regions. Yet, challenges remain, ensuring that mining adheres to EU environmental and safety standards, mitigating governance risks, and avoiding over-dependence on raw uranium exports without local beneficiation. To maximise this opportunity, European policymakers should pursue strategic partnerships, promote sustainable mining practices, and support Zambia in developing regulatory frameworks that balance investment incentives with environmental and economic safeguards.
Zambia heralds a partial solution to Europe's Uranium needs. Historically, Zambia has long been a dominant force in global copper production. During the colonial era, British firms such as Anglo American Corporation and Roan Selection Trust played a central role in developing Zambia’s copper mines. After independence in 1964, the Zambian government nationalised the sector, but European involvement persisted, particularly through companies from the UK, Switzerland, and later Canada. Today, Swiss-based Glencore, UK-based Vedanta Resources, and Canadian firm First Quantum Minerals are among the key players in Zambia’s copper industry. However, recent years have increasingly highlighted the paramount need for economic diversification, with uranium emerging as a key opportunity. Whilst being the world's seventh-largest copper producer and the second largest in Africa, in 2023 Zambia produced 698,000 tonnes of copper, marking a 14-year low. This decline, which comes as Zambia struggles to restructure its external defaulting in 2020. has reinforced concerns about the country’s over-reliance on a single commodity and its vulnerability to fluctuating global copper prices. In response, in August 2024, Zambia’s Minister of Mines and Mineral Development announced an ambitious strategy, dubbed the the National Three (3) Million Metric Tonnes Copper Production Strategy to increase the country’s copper production to 3 million tonnes by 2031 whilst simultaneously promoting the development of other critical minerals to build economic resilience. Among these, uranium stands out as a key opportunity.
Zambia has held significant uranium potential for years, issuing mining licenses since 2009. However, due to historically low uranium prices, mining projects struggled to gain momentum, with companies such as Albidon (Australia), African Energy Resources Ltd. (Australia), and Equinox Minerals (Canada) expressing interest but failing to develop large-scale operations. Despite this slow progress, Zambia’s mining infrastructure and regulatory framework remain well-established, making the country an attractive jurisdiction for future uranium investment. One of the most promising developments is the Muntanga project, which has the potential to produce 2–2.5 million pounds of uranium per year over multiple decades. With an expected average production of 2.2 million pounds of U₃O₈ (846 tU) annually over a 12-year mine life, Muntanga represents a significant step toward positioning Zambia as a key uranium supplier. European investment and technology partnerships could play a pivotal role in unlocking this potential, ensuring that uranium extraction aligns with global best practices in environmental and safety standards, particularly given the EU's stringent regulatory frameworks, such as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) and the EU Conflict Minerals Regulation (EU) 2017/821, which mandate responsible sourcing and prohibit procurement from environmentally harmful or unsafe mining operations. The project benefits from Zambia’s well-developed mining sector, which includes established infrastructure, access to key industrial inputs such as sulfuric acid, essential for uranium leaching and available in surplus, and a government that actively supports mining development. Thus, production is forecast to begin within 4 months of extraction.
According to the feasibility study, the Muntanga project will utilise a central processing plant capable of handling 3.5 million tonnes of material annually, sourced from both the Muntanga and Dibbwi East mining sites. To visualise this scale, consider that one tonne of uranium ore typically yields about 0.1% to 0.2% uranium by weight, and with a recovery rate of 0.15%, the project could produce approximately 5,250 tonnes of uranium annually. For comparison, the European Union's annual electricity consumption is around 3,000 TWh (or 3,000,000 MWh), meaning the uranium produced at Muntanga could contribute approximately 1.75% of the EU's total annual electricity needs. While this amount would not be enough to power the EU for an entire year, it would supply a substantial portion of the electricity required for a significant period, underscoring the project's potential impact on global energy security.
The leaching process will use a weak sulfuric acid and hydrogen peroxide solution, ensuring efficient uranium extraction while adhering to cleaner, less invasive processing methods that align with evolving environmental standards. Additionally, Zambia’s position as a net surplus acid producer guarantees a stable and cost-effective supply of reagents, reducing reliance on imported chemicals and lowering the project’s carbon footprint. With uranium production expected to commence within four months of mining operations beginning, Muntanga has the potential to accelerate Zambia’s diversification strategy, reducing reliance on copper while strengthening its position as a key supplier in the evolving global nuclear market. Given the EU’s emphasis on responsible sourcing and sustainability through regulatory phrame works such as the aforementioned EU Conflict Minerals Regulation (EU) 2017/821), Zambia’s uranium industry, particularly with its domestic acid supply and relatively low-impact processing techniques, could make it an attractive partner for European buyers seeking compliant, ethically sourced nuclear fuel.
Zambia is well-positioned to capitalise on the growing imbalance in the uranium market, where supply struggles to keep pace with rising global demand. According to the World Nuclear Association, Zambia is well-positioned to capitalise on the growing imbalance in the uranium market, where supply struggles to keep pace with rising global demand. According to the World Nuclear Association, currently, two-thirds of the world’s uranium production is concentrated in just three countries, Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia, leaving the market vulnerable to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions.
For the EU, reliance on these suppliers presents distinct challenges. Kazakhstan, the world's largest uranium producer, has close political and economic ties with Russia, raising concerns about the security of supply amid ongoing tensions between Moscow and the West. Additionally, its landlocked geography and dependence on Russian-controlled transportation routes pose logistical vulnerabilities. Canada, while a stable and long-term EU ally, has higher production costs due to stringent environmental regulations and labour expenses, which could make its uranium less competitive compared to alternative sources. Australia, despite being a geopolitically secure supplier, has historically imposed strict domestic policies on uranium mining and export, leading to fluctuating output and regulatory uncertainty.
In contrast, Zambia offers a more flexible and untapped alternative for the EU’s nuclear strategy. Its rich uranium reserves, established mining infrastructure, and willingness to attract foreign investment position it as a key player in diversifying European uranium procurement. However, ensuring compliance with EU environmental and ethical sourcing standards remains a crucial factor in determining Zambia’s long-term role in the bloc’s nuclear energy mix.
This coincides with a revitalised nuclear market, where interest in nuclear power, driven by both climate concerns and energy security needs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has vastly intensified the competition for reliable uranium sources, subsequently sparking rising prices and signaling an urgent need for new production and investment strategies to align with global demand. This comes as major nuclear nations such as Canada, France, Japan, and the United States are all extending the lifespans of their existing reactors, with new plants likewise being planned or constructed across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, further amplifying demand.
The nuclear industry however, is currently ill-equipped to meet this surge. Years of underinvestment following the 2011 Fukushima disaster led to the closure of existing mines and a slowdown in new project development. According to industry estimates, by 2040, existing mines will supply only 20% of the world’s primary uranium production, leaving a massive shortfall that must be filled by new projects. The uranium market has so far relied on secondary supplies, such as stockpiles and recycled materials, but these inventories are rapidly depleting, heightening the urgency for fresh sources. Compounding this issue, bringing new uranium mines online is a lengthy and capital-intensive process, often requiring more than a decade from discovery to production, creating a significant supply lag.The nuclear industry is struggling to meet rising demand due to years of underinvestment, and by 2040, existing mines will supply only 20% of the world’s uranium. Secondary supplies, like stockpiles, are rapidly depleting, further heightening the need for new sources. Developing new uranium mines is slow and costly, often taking over a decade to reach production. Long-term supply contracts, often 10 to 20 years, have limited opportunities for new players, locking up substantial portions of global uranium production. By securing long-term deals with Zambia, Europe could disrupt competitors' access to uranium, especially those not already tied to suppliers, thereby reducing resources for geopolitical rivals and gaining an edge in the nuclear race.
The uranium market stands at a critical juncture, with soaring demand set against a backdrop of constrained supply. The 2023 edition of the World Nuclear Association’s Nuclear Fuel Report projects a 28% increase in uranium demand between 2023 and 2030, driven by an 18% rise in reactor capacity ,with additional new cores required for fresh fuel loads. Beyond 2030, demand is forecasted to surge by 51% between 2031 and 2040, depending on the pace of new reactor construction and the extension of older plants' operational lifetimes. Europe’s role in this expansion is becoming increasingly significant, as countries seek to bolster energy security in response to geopolitical tensions and the phase-out of hostile Russian energy supplies. France, a nation heavily reliant on nuclear power, is investing in next-generation reactors, while countries like Poland and the Netherlands are accelerating plans for their first or expanded nuclear fleets. Even in Germany, where nuclear power was recently phased out, debates persist over its potential revival amid energy security concerns. Meanwhile, electricity demand worldwide is expected to increase by 50% by 2040, leaving ample room for nuclear expansion in a world striving for carbon-free energy solutions. Reuters asserts that nuclear capacity is already projected to rise by 14% by 2030 and surge by 76% to 686 GWe by 2040, highlighting the scale of future uranium requirements. Investment firms such as BMO Capital Markets expect uranium demand to grow at an annual rate of 2.9% through 2035, underscoring the sector’s strong long-term outlook.
The resurgence of nuclear power of which the Eu is at the front of is not just about energy security, it is also a critical tool in the fight against climate change. As countries work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition away from fossil fuels, nuclear energy offers a stable, low-carbon alternative that complements renewable sources like wind and solar. Unlike intermittent renewables, nuclear plants provide consistent baseload power, ensuring grid reliability while contributing to decarbonization efforts. Innovations such as small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced fuel designs are further enhancing the safety, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness of nuclear energy. Meanwhile, demand for electricity continues to rise, particularly in emerging economies, reinforcing the need for scalable, low-emission power generation. In Europe, high energy prices, geopolitical instability, and the push for energy independence, especially in the wake of reduced Russian gas imports, are driving renewed interest in nuclear power. Countries like France are expanding their nuclear fleets, while Germany’s nuclear phase-out seems to be under scrutiny from the new incoming government. This shift is evident in global nuclear expansion, China recently announced plans for 11 new reactors, Russia has committed to a similar number, and 25 nations have pledged to triple nuclear generation.
It is in this context, Zambia’s uranium sector, particularly through projects like Muntanga, presents a crucial opportunity. With the potential to produce 2-2.5 million lbs of uranium per year over multiple decades, enough to power all of France’s nuclear reactors for approximately three months or provide electricity for 15-20 million European homes for a year, Muntanga could help alleviate the global supply gap, particularly as Western nations seek alternatives to Russian uranium and China expands its nuclear energy capacity. The feasibility study envisions a central processing plant handling 3.5 million tonnes per year, with uranium production expected within four months of mining commencement. Zambia’s established mining infrastructure, access to key inputs like sulfuric acid, and government support further enhance its attractiveness as a uranium supplier. Unlike other jurisdictions where regulatory hurdles and geopolitical instability pose risks to mining investments, Zambia offers a stable environment for long-term uranium production. However, this also raises geopolitical considerations. With China’s growing investments in African uranium projects holding the potential to increase Lusaka’s economic reliance on Beijing, while Western nations may push for strategic partnerships to secure supplies. By accelerating its uranium sector, Zambia can not only diversify its economy beyond copper but also position itself as a strategic supplier in an increasingly tight and competitive global market.
To maximise and harness the potential of Zambia's uranium a coordinated strategy between the EU and the Zambian government is vital. The following policy recommendations are designed to ensure mutual benefits, strengthening Europe’s energy security and likewise Zambia’s economic development:
Regulatory Frameworks for Investment:
- Zambia’s rich natural resources, strategic location, viable infrastructure and young and growing population give the nation significant opportunities for economic expansion. A World Bank report published in 2024 estimates that Zambia could attract up to $21 billion in new investments and generate 80,000 formal jobs by 2030 through targeted reforms. To harness this potential, Zambia must coincide its work with investors to leverage its natural resources with the development of clear and stable regulatory frameworks that attract European investment while ensuring local economic benefits. In the uranium sector, Zambia should implement transparent licensing processes, offer tax incentives for responsible mining, and enforce environmental and labor standards that align with EU regulations. By fostering a business-friendly environment and prioritizing local value addition, such as domestic refining and processing, Zambia can strengthen its position as a reliable uranium supplier while ensuring that resource wealth translates into sustainable national development. Close collaboration with European investors will also enable knowledge transfer, infrastructure growth, and long-term industrial diversification.
Sustainable and Ethical Resource Governance:
- The EU should prioritise partnerships with Zambian uranium producers that adhere to high environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards, ensuring responsible mining practices and ethical supply chains. This approach aligns with the EU’s commitment to sustainable resource extraction under initiatives like the European Green Deal and the Critical Raw Materials Act, which emphasise reducing environmental harm and promoting ethical labor practices. Zambia can position itself as a preferred uranium supplier by implementing stringent environmental regulations, requiring mining firms to adopt modern, low-impact extraction technologies, and enforcing strict waste management protocols. European investment should be contingent on adherence to internationally recognised ESG frameworks, such as those outlined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). By embedding ESG principles in Zambia’s uranium sector, both the EU and Zambia can ensure a mutually beneficial partnership, one that secures Europe’s nuclear energy future while fostering sustainable economic development in Zambia.
Long Term Strategic Agreements:
- European energy utilities should establish direct procurement agreements with Zambian uranium suppliers, guaranteeing a stable uranium supply for the EU’s nuclear energy expansion while providing Zambia with consistent revenue and industrial growth opportunities. By securing long-term contracts, the EU can reduce reliance on uranium imports from geo politically unstable regions, enhancing energy security and strategic autonomy. For Zambia, these agreements offer predictable revenue streams, encouraging further investment in infrastructure, workforce development, and local processing capabilities. Instead of exporting raw uranium, Zambia could negotiate deals that promote in-country refining and value addition, fostering industrial growth and job creation. Strategic agreements should also include technology transfers and capacity-building programs, ensuring that Zambia’s mining sector benefits from European expertise in sustainable extraction, radiation safety, and regulatory compliance. This partnership model would position Zambia as a key supplier in Europe’s nuclear energy transition while reinforcing the EU’s leadership in responsible and secure resource procurement.
Infrastructure & Capacity Building Support
- To ensure the long-term success of Zambia’s uranium sector, the EU should prioritise investments in critical infrastructure and capacity building within the country. Strengthening Zambia's uranium supply chain through financing key infrastructure projects such as ports, railways, and processing plants will ensure that the country's uranium reserves can be efficiently accessed and transported to international markets. This infrastructure development will not only enhance the logistics of uranium extraction but will also contribute to Zambia’s broader economic growth by improving the overall transportation and energy sectors. Additionally, the EU can play a crucial role in fostering local expertise in the nuclear energy and mining industries by partnering with Zambian universities and technical institutes. Developing specialised research programs and training courses on uranium mining, nuclear energy technology, and resource management will empower the local workforce with the skills necessary to operate and maintain these high-tech industries. These educational partnerships could include exchange programs, scholarships, and internships, providing students and professionals with valuable hands-on experience. By investing in both infrastructure and human capital, the EU will not only help Zambia unlock the full potential of its uranium reserves but also promote sustainable development and reduce the risk of overreliance on foreign workers and technology. This collaborative effort will contribute to long-term, self-sustaining growth within Zambia’s uranium sector, allowing it to emerge as a key player in the global nuclear market.
Geopolitical Strategy & Market Stability
As global demand for uranium rises, it is critical for the EU to diversify its supply sources and reduce dependence on politically unstable or adversarial nations. In this context, Zambia’s uranium sector offers a strategic opportunity to position the country as a reliable and stable supplier to European markets. The EU should prioritise integrating Zambia into its broader energy security strategy, ensuring that the country is recognised as an alternative to traditional uranium suppliers such as Russia and China. By facilitating this transition, the EU can mitigate the geopolitical risks associated with relying on suppliers from regions where energy security is uncertain or influenced by external political pressures. To solidify Zambia’s role as a trusted uranium supplier, the EU should advocate for its membership in international governance bodies, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This would not only enhance Zambia’s regulatory framework but also align its uranium industry with global best practices for transparency, safety, and environmental standards. By supporting Zambia’s participation in these multilateral organisations, the EU can help ensure that uranium production in the country adheres to the highest standards of responsibility, reducing the risk of unsustainable practices and reinforcing confidence among European consumers. Moreover, by strengthening Zambia’s regulatory oversight and institutional capacity, the EU can contribute to the long-term stability of uranium markets. A stable, regulated supply chain will attract European investors who are looking for secure and responsible uranium sources, further enhancing market confidence. This approach could also bolster Zambia’s reputation as a dependable partner, allowing it to become a central player in Europe’s strategic efforts to diversify its energy supply and reduce its dependence on traditional, politically sensitive suppliers.
To conclude, Zambia presents a unique opportunity for much needed supply chain diversification for the EU, with the uranium produced at Muntanga potentially heating approximately 14.6 million homes in the EU for a year. As global uranium demand increases, Zambia has the opportunity to position itself as a key supplier, particularly for the EU’s nuclear energy expansion. However, a recognition of the risks associated with this opportunity is key to the project's success and longevity. Realising the project's potential hinges on well-balanced policies that attract investment while safeguarding national interests. A strategic approach is essential, one that goes beyond raw uranium exports to include value addition, infrastructure development, and local capacity building. By fostering long-term partnerships with European investors, implementing strong regulatory frameworks, and ensuring sustainable resource governance, Zambia can transform its uranium industry into a key driver of both economic growth and geopolitical leverage. Only with coordinated planning between Zambia and the EU, can this opportunity be harnessed to secure mutual benefits in an increasingly multipolar and insecure world.
