“Our country may be small, but our people think big. Our ideas will not be limited by the limits of our borders," said Rwandan President Paul Kagame, a statement that perfectly encapsulates Rwanda’s bold approach to its role on the African continent. Since the accession of Kagame in 1994, the tiny central African nation has developed an outsized role in the region, evermore seeing itself as 'Africa's Policeman'.
Rwanda's decisive intervention in Mozambique’s conflict has sparked intense debate, with its actions raising pressing questions about the true nature of its involvement. Whilst Rwanda’s forces have indeed stabilised the insurgency ravaged Cabo Delgado province, where both Mozambique’s own military, private military contractors (PMCs), and even the Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces struggled to regain control, there remains a more malevolent undertone, with their intervention serving its own selfish political and economic interests. This article examines both sides of Rwanda’s involvement from a cooperative ally to a neo-imperialist intervention, while ultimately exploring what the Mozambican government as well as international corporations operating in the region, such as Total Energies, can do to enhance their security and development strategy.
According to the French Institute of International Relations, Rwanda is currently the second-largest continental contributor of soldiers to other African countries, either as part of UN peacekeeping missions or through bilateral arrangements. Kigali’s recent deployments reflect a grand yet ambitious foreign policy strategy, primarily aimed at securing Rwanda’s interests in the long term, while building strategic African partnerships to address the country’s structural challenges. Nowhere is this more evident than through Rwanda’s military intervention in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province which represented a significant development in the region's security dynamics. Through a benevolent paradigm, Rwanda's intervention can be hailed as a stabilising force, illustrating the RDF’s operational capacity to support counter-offensives against competing armed groups, consequentially suppressing the once endemic levels of violence in the region. Upon closer inspection however, this intervention is far from neutral, with Rwanda’s presence in an unstable, corrupt and resource rich Mozambique being inherently self centred.
The insurgency in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, which began in 2017, quickly evolved into a severe humanitarian and security crisis. The region, located on the coast of the Indian ocean, became a target for extremist groups such as Ansar al-Sunna, also known as Al-Shabaab (no relation to the Somali group). For three years, the group played a cat-and-mouse game with Mozambique’s military in a violent campaign that has resulted in thousands of deaths and the displacement of nearly a million people. Hostilities peaked in a move which shocked many commentators after insurgents completely took control of Mocímboa da Praia in August 2020, representing a rapid deterioration of regional security. With Mozambique’s military clearly struggling to contain the insurgency, the government was prompted to seek external assistance. Consequently, At the invitation of the host government, Rwanda first deployed RDF troops and a smaller police contingent to the Cabo Delgado province of northern Mozambique in July 2021 under the guise of regional solidarity and the preservation of peace. Having proved their resolve in prior interventions carried out in South Sudan and the Central African Republic the Mozambican government viewed the RDF as a highly effective option renowned for its high level of discipline, organisation, and military effectiveness, which soon yielded significant gains in the region. Rwandan forces helped recapture key areas like Mocímboa da Praia, a former insurgent stronghold, and allowed the resumption of major energy projects.
Kigali has said it was inclined to intervene in Mozambique because of its commitment to the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine and the 2015 Kigali Principles on the Protection of Civilians. This however is a facade. The sheer prevalence of these energy projects implies that Rwanda’s motivations for intervening in Mozambique extend beyond humanitarian concerns, to something more cynical. Cabo Delgado is rich in natural resources, coming under global spotlight following the 2011 discovery of extensive offshore natural gas reserves by ENI and Anadarko ,Italian and American petroleum companies respectively. Cabo Delgado’s natural resources and the subsequent international attention surrounding the conflict have turned the province into a geopolitical battleground, adding a complex layer of intrigue to Rwanda's intervention.
The ongoing conflict in Cabo Delgado poses significant challenges to industries operating in the region. Cabo Delgado is a nexus for economic activity with global significance, housing Africa‘s three largest liquid natural gas (LNG) projects including Total‘s US$ 20 billion Mozambique LNG Project, ENI/ExxonMobil‘s $4.7 billion USD Coral LFNG Project and the $30 billion USD ExxonMobil/ENI/CNPC Rovuma LNG Project. These corporations must take note that their success is tied to regional stability and government cooperation. In Cabo Delgado, these LNG powerhouses have faced widespread operational risks, including supply chain disruptions, infrastructure damage, and the need for enhanced security measures. These risks elevate operational costs and undermine investor confidence, slowing development in resource-rich areas. A renowned victim of this is the French energy giant TotalEnergies, whose multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) project was forced to suspend operations in 2021 due to escalating violence from the insurgency. TotalEnergies’ suspension marked a significant financial blow, with billions invested and future profits on hold, creating urgency to secure the region for resuming operations. Behind the scenes, TotalEnergies began lobbying the Mozambican government, pressing for a security solution that would protect its assets and allow operations to restart. With local forces and private military contractors unable to contain the insurgency, TotalEnergies advocated for Rwanda’s highly trained military as a viable alternative to help address the security problem and it’s negative consequences operationally and economically. This lobbying effort played a significant role in facilitating the deployment of the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF) to Cabo Delgado, under the premise of regional solidarity but with clear benefits for TotalEnergies. Many commentators cite the distinct lack of transparency as evidence of underlying pressure from TotalEnergies on the Mozambican government to secure the area with Rwandan troops.
These troops were deployed to Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region in July 2021, three months after the suspension of economic activity. Total under the opinion that Rwandan forces could protect the areas housing the lucrative offshore gas fields and infrastructure for liquefying and exporting natural gas. By stepping into Cabo Delgado, Rwanda has positioned itself as a direct protector of foreign commercial interests, gaining considerable backing from stakeholders eager to see the project resume. For Rwanda, aligning with TotalEnergies’ interests provides not only substantial financial support but also a chance to strengthen ties with a major international player—a relationship that can be leveraged for economic gain and political clout. This support extends beyond military funding, bolstering Rwanda’s ambitions to assert itself as a central actor in regional security and diplomacy. Thus, in this regard, whilst there are indeed drawbacks including the possibilities of being politically and economically leveraged when navigating a partnership with Rwanda, they still retain their place of being an extraordinarily effective and viable option.
Whilst a stable Cabo Delgado would create a pathway for resource companies like TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil to resume operations, directly benefiting local communities through job creation, infrastructure development, and increased government revenues from exports. The construction and operation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, for instance, could stimulate local economies by offering employment opportunities, improving access to health and education facilities, and fostering the development of roads and other essential infrastructure. However, conversely prolonged instability opens opportunities alternative beneficiaries are quick to exploit, something which Rwanda’s intervention epitomises.
Moreover, it is equally plausible that alongside advancing Rwanda’s relationships with big energy and increasing its prevalence as a regional power, the RDF’s military deployments are equally being used to advance Rwanda’s economic interests. Rwanda’s bilateral mission in Mozambique is seemingly motivated not only by nation-state goals but also by the corporate interests of Crystal Ventures, the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front’s (RPF) financial arm, which has established subsidiaries in various sectors, including security, construction, and mining.Through Crystal Ventures, Rwanda’s expansion into new sectors like mining and energy helps diversify the country’s primarily agriculturally dependent economy, increasing regional trade, and generating additional revenue streams. The actions of Radarscape, which Mozambican corporate records show is an indirect subsidiary of Crystal Ventures’ international arm Macefield Ventures, reinforces the legitimacy of this narrative. Established to capitalise on commercial opportunities in resource-rich Mozambique following Rwanda’s military deployment, Radarscape recently in 2024 secured a significant contract to construct a solar plant for TotalEnergies’ liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Cabo Delgado, highlighting its role as a strategic partner in Mozambique’s energy sector. Whilst admittedly contributing to the local energy infrastructure necessary for sustaining LNG operations, aligns with TotalEnergies’ renewable energy goals, it also further entrenches Rwandan commercial interests within Mozambique’s energy landscape. Beyond infrastructure projects, Radarscape has also been contracted to build a settlement village for residents displaced by LNG developments, a contract reportedly valued at $800,000, in a move which exhibits Rwandan companies’ desire to embed themselves in the local Mozambican communities in which their forces are operating. Radarscape’s activities suggest a larger strategy within Crystal Ventures to establish a long-term presence in Mozambique, focusing on construction and renewable energy—sectors that support the infrastructure of multinational corporations operating in the area.
Another facet of Rwanda’s economic interests in Cabo Delgado is the exploration of graphite, a resource in high demand for electric battery production, which aligns with China’s global dominance in the electric vehicle supply chain and its strategic push for securing raw materials essential to its green energy ambitions. As a consequence, a Rwandan-led company associated with Crystal Ventures has been established to explore graphite deposits around Ancuabe, a region where the RDF maintains a small operational base. The main shareholder of this firm, Strofinare Mozambique, is a mining enterprise founded in October 2021 by Rwandan national Jean-Paul Rutagarama. Although the RDF has not been actively engaged in operations within Ancuabe itself, the base supports operations across the Chiúre and Eráti districts, where over 14% of Rwandan actions in 2024 have been recorded. This presence strategically aligns RDF efforts with expanding Rwandan commercial interests in the mineral sector, further integrating Rwanda into Mozambique’s resource-rich economy.
Overall, these engagements reflect how Rwanda’s intervention may also be motivated by the commercial interests of its ruling party, with Radarscape and other subsidiaries of Crystal Ventures positioned to benefit financially from the region’s development needs. For Mozambique, however, the influx of Rwandan businesses operating under government-backed agreements contributes to the scrutiny of its implications on local firms and the extent to which Mozambique’s resources and economic landscape are becoming linked to Rwanda’s geopolitical and economic objectives of strategic resource access, revenue generation, economic diversification and the achievement of global partnerships.
Rwanda’s military intervention in Mozambique has sparked accusations of malevolent intent from international organisations like the SADC and organisations such as Amnesty International, with Rwanda’s presence in Cabo Delgado allegedly providing cover for the targeting of Rwandan dissidents residing there. Historically, Rwanda has been known to pursue those it considers security threats across borders, with Kigali long maintaining an interest in securing threats from neighbouring countries using an extensive foreign intelligence network. Its operations in Mozambique offer new flexibility in addressing what it sees as threats from opponents of the Kagame regime. Bilateral military arrangements, such as those between Mozambique and Rwanda, are notably less restrictive than AU or UN peacekeeping mandates, enabling broader operational freedom that may facilitate covert intelligence operations and “extraterritorial repression.” against individuals considered as a threat to the Kagame regime.
In the years since Rwanda became embroiled in Mozambique’s security dilemma, HRW states that "at least three Rwandans have been killed or disappeared in suspicious circumstances, while two others have survived kidnapping attempts". The assassination of Révocat Karemangingo, is one such incident. Karemangingo, a former Rwandan lieutenant who fled after Kagame’s rise to power, was ambushed and shot multiple times outside his pharmacy in Matola, near Maputo, with the timing and nature of his murder having fueled suspicions of Rwandan state involvement. Similarly, another high-profile case is the killing of Seleman Masiya, a Rwandan dissident and registered asylum seeker in Mozambique. Masiya, known for his vocal criticism of the Rwandan government, was brutally stabbed to death in Nampula. Human Rights Watch reported credible claims that Masiya had been pressured to cooperate with Rwandan authorities, fueling speculation that his refusal may have led to his murder. The direct correlation between the RDF’s presence and the increased violence against refugees critical of the Kagame government highlight a darker dimension of Rwanda’s intervention, one where geopolitical ambitions are intertwined with an unwavering commitment to silencing opposition—even beyond its own borders.
Counter to the criticisms of Rwanda's presence in Mozambique, it must be acknowledged that Kagame’s military presence in Mozambique has yielded several strategic and humanitarian benefits, contributing significantly to the stabilisation of Cabo Delgado province. Since the deployment of Rwandan troops in 2021, joint operations between Rwandan and Mozambican forces have successfully captured key towns and villages, including major strongholds like Mbau and Awasse. This restoration of state authority has been crucial in regaining control over areas previously besieged by the insurgent groups Ansar al-Sunna or Al-Shabaab (unrelated to the Somali group of the same name), who notoriously use brutal tactics, including mass killings, abductions, and village destruction, displacing nearly a million people in what developed into a severe humanitarian crisis.
One of the most significant achievements of this multifaceted intervention is the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their homes. By the end of 2023, over 250,000 people who had fled violence in Cabo Delgado were able to resettle, thanks in large part to the enhanced security environment fostered by Rwandan forces. The reopening of critical infrastructure, such as airports and the Mocimboa da Praia port, has further facilitated this return, allowing for the resumption of economic activities vital to the region's recovery.
Kagame’s intervention has also aligned with the core promises of the Kigali Principles on the Protection of Civilians, emphasising civilian safety during peacekeeping operations. Notably, according to ACLED only two incidents of violence targeting civilians have been reported since the onset of the Rwandan mission, a testament to the military’s focus on protecting local populations. ACLED is generally seen as a reputable and unbiased source of information for this data and is funded primarily by UN associated NGOs and the European Commission.
Beyond military operations, the Rwandan troops have engaged in community development initiatives. They have conducted outreach programs providing medical services, educational materials, and building essential market infrastructure in local communities. These efforts not only enhance the quality of life for the local population but also promote goodwill between Rwandan forces and the communities they serve.
To this end, Kagame's military intervention in Mozambique presents a model of regional cooperation, demonstrating how military support can effectively address security crises while simultaneously contributing to local development and stabilisation efforts. This partnership not only solidifies Rwanda’s strategic influence in the region but also establishes a framework for future collaboration between other states in the region, showcasing how military action can positively impact security and development in conflict-affected areas. It is worth noting however that Rwanda is evidently using this position to also enhance its own geopolitical ambitions and that of Total’s while maintaining a good public image through high integrity operations.
While Mozambique does need to make policies and decisions to begin a path of independent security in order to regain their national integrity and resource rights, or now Rwanda doesn’t pose a huge risk to Mozambique who without the Rwandan support would instead have the Cabo Delgado region occupied by jihadists independent security in order to regain their national integrity and resource rights. Expanding on this, based on the insights gathered from Rwanda's intervention in Mozambique, what can the Mozambican government and key corporate actors with vested interests in the region do to enhance their security and development strategy? Our analysts propose a few courses of action:
Mozambican Government:
Focus on Economic Diversification:
- While the LNG projects are vital, the government should also promote economic diversification in Cabo Delgado to reduce dependence on a single sector. This includes investing in agriculture, fisheries, and tourism, which can provide alternative livelihoods for communities and break up Rwandan economic monopolisation.
Strengthen Collaborative Security Frameworks:
- Continue fostering partnerships with other regional allies to secure the Cabo Delgado region in order to reduce Rwandan security hegemony. However, these need to be developed through formal agreements outlining shared responsibilities and strategic goals, enhancing collective security measures.
Enhance Civilian Protection Protocols:
- Develop and institutionalise protocols that prioritise civilian protection during military operations. Train security forces on the Kigali Principles and ensure accountability mechanisms are in place to prevent abuses by armed forces or police to regain public trust and support.
Leverage International Support and Investment:
- Actively engage international partners to secure funding and technical support for infrastructure projects, education, and health services. Build transparent frameworks to ensure that foreign investments translate into tangible benefits for local communities and bring more international eyes onto the region to prevent potential abuses by Rwanda and Total through a wider information and observer network.
Facilitate Dialogue with Dissidents:
- Consider establishing channels for dialogue with Rwandan dissidents and other critics living abroad to address grievances peacefully. This could help mitigate potential threats posed by dissenters and improve the overall security climate.
Industry and Stakeholders in the Region:
Strengthen On-Site Security Measures
- Collaborate with Government Forces: Work closely with the Mozambican military and police to ensure protection of key infrastructure.
- Private Security Firms: Employ reputable private security firms to safeguard operations, particularly in high-risk zones.
Diversify Risk
- Operational Resilience: Develop contingency plans, such as alternative supply chains and backup energy sources, to reduce vulnerability to disruptions.
- Broaden Investment: Support smaller projects or initiatives in adjacent, less volatile regions to spread risk.
Lobby for Robust Government Policies
- Regulatory Clarity: Advocate for clear and stable regulatory frameworks to minimise operational uncertainties.
- Security Cooperation: Encourage the Mozambican government to create a comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy, incorporating community-driven solutions.
- Further Inter-Government Security Cooperation: By lobbying for cooperation with other nations for the security of the Cabo Delgado region, companies can erode Rwanda’s security monopoly and decrease the possibility of abuse or tension between Rwanda and Mozambique while also reinforcing the security with more boots on the ground.
Strengthen Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration
- Public-Private Partnerships: Collaborate with local and international NGOs, the Mozambican government, and development agencies to align security measures with broader humanitarian goals.
- Corporate Alliances: Form coalitions with other companies operating in the region to share security costs and coordinate development efforts.
Promote Community Engagement
- Employment Opportunities: Prioritise hiring from local communities to foster goodwill and reduce the perception of exploitation.
- Social Investment: Fund infrastructure, education, and healthcare initiatives to address community grievances that insurgents may exploit.
- Transparency: Maintain open communication with local populations about project goals and benefits to build trust and minimise resistance.
Rwanda’s intervention in Mozambique provides a blueprint for addressing security crises through regional cooperation but also serves as a cautionary tale about the perils of overreliance on external actors. While the intervention has brought significant security and developmental gains, the accompanying risks of diminished sovereignty and disproportionate foreign influence remain pressing concerns.
For Mozambique, a balanced strategy that strengthens local governance, enhances military capabilities, and promotes sustainable development is crucial. Only by ensuring that the benefits of resource extraction and stabilisation efforts directly support national interests can Mozambique safeguard its autonomy and achieve equitable growth. They also must look to not replace or remove Rwanda from the Cabo Delgado region decisively else they risk the insurgency flaming up further, but instead erode their hegemony through the introduction of other state actors and multinational interests to prevent monopolisation.
For industry stakeholders, it is equally important to adopt a holistic approach that prioritises both security and community engagement. Companies must prioritise transparent engagement with local populations, foster collaboration with government and international partners, and invest in social and economic development initiatives. By aligning their operations with Mozambique’s long-term stability and growth objectives, industry actors can protect their investments, mitigate risks, and contribute to a more equitable distribution of benefits. Ultimately, a cohesive strategy between Mozambique and its corporate partners can ensure that resource wealth drives lasting progress rather than perpetuating dependency or external influence.
