From the Sahel to Gabon, Francafrique is shaking.Goita in Mali, Traoré in Burkina Faso, and Niger's military junta successfully managed to slip away from Paris control within a matter of weeks from their takeover. In 2 and a half years, France lost a key portion of its African assets in an area mired by major failures in French military involvement in recent times, especially in the fight against Jihadist militias. Just last August in Mali, France's "Operation Barkhane" failed, with Bamako's administration cooperating with Russia to repel French influence. Likewise, in the Central African Republic, Russia, thanks to Africa Corps (formerly Wagner PMC), has established itself as the support leg of the central government in the ongoing civil war, which has been tearing apart the country for the last twelve years. In addition to this, after last year's election, Gabon's President Ali Bongo Ondimba was removed by his Generals in a Russian-backed coup d’état, ending a dynasty supported by France since his father, Omar Bongo, took over in 1967 with French political support. From this chaos and instability arising in Francafrique, Moscow and Beijing's influence in the region is growing, as the centuries-long French colonial hand is fading away. However, Paris hopes to turn the tables again. With few pieces left on the board for Paris to play with, each remaining aligned regime becomes more important, and the next one most likely to falter is in Yaoundé, Cameroon, where the longest-living French ally in Africa will soon pass away.

“Our country may be small, but our people think big. Our ideas will not be limited by the limits of our borders," said Rwandan President Paul Kagame, a statement that perfectly encapsulates Rwanda’s bold approach to its role on the African continent. Since the accession of Kagame in 1994, the tiny central African nation has developed an outsized role in the region, evermore seeing itself as 'Africa's Policeman'. Rwanda's decisive intervention in Mozambique’s conflict has sparked intense debate, with its actions raising pressing questions about the true nature of its involvement. Whilst Rwanda’s forces have indeed stabilised the insurgency ravaged Cabo Delgado province, where both Mozambique’s own military, private military contractors (PMCs), and even the Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces struggled to regain control, there remains a more malevolent undertone, with their intervention serving its own selfish political and economic interests. This article examines both sides of Rwanda’s involvement from a cooperative ally to a neo-imperialist intervention, while ultimately exploring what the Mozambican government as well as international corporations operating in the region, such as Total Energies, can do to enhance their security and development strategy. 

Green transition is the topic of the time in the west. Both the United States, United Kingdom and European Union have pushed renewable energy, electric vehicles and net zero at the top of their agendas in the last five years, with resolutions made at COP28 tripling down upon commitments made during the Paris agreement further exemplifying this global transition. Despite this global initiative being largely diplomatically led by the west, the real victor in this transition is China. China has become “the green dragon” a manufacturing powerhouse supplying the vast majority of the world’s newfound demand for renewables, furthering its economic growth and increasing global reliance on Chinese trade in the backdrop of the US-China trade war. By accepting China as the “green hegemon” the west would be left at the mercy of Chinese trade becoming reliant on Chinese technology to build and maintain a net zero economy and by extension have to make geopolitical concessions in order to maintain good trade relations. In this article our analysts assess the extent of Chinese dominance of the green industrial sector, the consequences of said dominance and policy options that could be explored by western governments to mitigate the resulting political and economic risks.

The potential for a new Balkan war is looming. The war in Ukraine, declining US influence, and a global shift towards multipolarity, has once again placed the region firmly into a potential frontline of conflicting ambition between East and West. However, accession into the EU could present a unique opportunity for preventing a regional conflict. Via frictionless borders, equalising economic development & integration, acting as a quasi-Yugoslavia, the EU could be the beacon of hope that the Balkans has been yearning for.

Your supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link: extraneous circumstances can quickly plunge even the strongest economies into disarray, as recently proven by COVID-19. Fortunately for the economies of the world, the coronavirus was indiscriminate in its economic impact, leaving the leading economies of the world with mostly the same struggles and as a result not creating significant economic-geopolitical shifts.‍ South Korea however now finds itself at the frontline of the US-Chinese trade war, where escalation could cause significant supply chain disruptions - an extraneous variable which would leave the South Korean economy in a uniquely difficult situation. The likelihood of a second Trump presidency will only reignite and accelerate the intensity of the US-Chinese trade war, with an increase in tariffs, sanctions and geopolitical escalation meaning South Korea must act swiftly.