Discovered in 2022, Venus-1 is set to revolutionise Southern Africa’s energy landscape. As TotalEnergies’ most significant discovery in two decades, Venus-1 is the largest Sub-Saharan oil find in history at an estimated 1.5 to 2 billion barrels of oil. Following "very positive" results of appraisal drilling at the Venus-1 site, an offshore oil field located in Namibia’s Orange Basin, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné asserted that his “priority is Namibia," underscoring Total’s strategic focus on the country's burgeoning oil and gas sector. With an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil reserves confirmed so far following subsequent explorations in the nation, commercial production is forecasted to begin as early as 2029. As a consequence, Namibia has catapulted to the forefront of Africa’s energy revolution and, based on firsthand observations in April 2024, has responded by rapidly accelerating infrastructure development to meet the growing demands of the oil and gas sector. However, questions remain about this resource-rich nation’s ability to harness her newfound oil wealth sustainably amidst global energy transition pressures, governance challenges, and the need to balance foreign investment with local economic empowerment.
This article will examine and make recommendations to relevant stakeholders on how to effectively and equitably maximise the benefits of Namibia’s newfound oil deposits by navigating a path toward sustainable development, while minimizing the associated costs of dependency, ensuring the country does not succumb to the resource curse.
Despite decades of exploration efforts, prior to 2022, Namibia had never produced or refined oil. The discovery of the Venus-1 fields changed that narrative dramatically, signifying a watershed moment for Namibian economic history and the nation’s resource landscape, sparking both optimism and critical debates about managing this newfound wealth. On the one hand, the discovery’s forecasted provision of $3.5 billion annually in royalties and taxes for the Namibian government have sparked hopes of prosperity for this resource-rich but economically constrained nation. However, it also raises critical questions about whether Namibia can avoid the pitfalls of dependence by managing its resources wisely or if it will fall victim to its recurring “resource curse” which has burdened itself and many African nations beforehand.
Before addressing this key issue, the question remains, what exactly is a resource curse? The resource curse (also known as the paradox of plenty) refers to a paradoxical phenomenon experienced by countries with abundant natural resources who have the tendency to experience slower economic growth, weaker governance, and higher inequality than their resource-scarce counterparts. This paradox stems from an acute overreliance on natural resource exports, which makes economies vulnerable to price fluctuations, fosters corruption, and diverts attention from broader economic diversification. Historically throughout Africa, nations such as Angola, Nigeria and Gabon have failed to translate prospective oil wealth into tangible widespread development, with their respective economies majorly hampered by inefficiencies and failures of governance. For the Namibian government, avoiding this all too easy fate will require a multitude of factors, including strong institutions, and a commitment to ensuring that resource wealth benefits all citizens rather than enriching a select few.
The stakes are particularly high as this discovery coincides with Namibia’s 2024 elections and the inauguration of President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. In December 2024, Nandi-Ndaitwah made history by becoming Namibia's first female president, securing 57% of the vote. Her victory marked a significant milestone in African politics, as she became the second woman to lead a country on the continent. Nandi-Ndaitwah's leadership is generally supported by SWAPO members and those who favor continuity in Namibia's political landscape by emphasising socialist and Pan-Africanist principles. Thus, her leadership is expected to continue SWAPO's legacy while addressing contemporary challenges facing the nation. In this fashion, her administration inherits the responsibility of steering Namibia’s future in the wake of an anticipated hydrocarbon boom, balancing the expectations of economic transformation with the risks of over-dependence on oil revenues. Alongside Nandi-Ndaitwah, other key players, including international oil giants like TotalEnergies and Shell, as well as local policymakers and community stakeholders, will play pivotal roles in shaping the trajectory of Namibia’s oil industry.
To adequately cope with the wave of investor interest in the country’s hydrocarbon reserves, Namibia must look back to its past experiences with resource management and the critical lessons these hold. The country’s history of dealing with resource extraction, particularly in the mining sector, offers valuable insights into the potential hazards of over-dependence on foreign investment and the management of revenue. Chinese investment in Namibia, particularly in uranium, copper, and zinc, has underscored both the potential benefits and the inherent risks tied to natural resource extraction and the inevitable foreign influence that accompanies it. As Namibia stands on the brink of an oil boom, these lessons must inform its approach to directly ensure that the mistakes of the past are not repeated.
Whilst addressing the country in her first press conference since winning November’s general election, newly elected President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah declared “it’s not going to be business as usual”, emphasizing her commitment to radical reforms aimed at addressing the needs of all Namibians. Indeed, as the first female president, her tenure promises to be transformative particularly in managing the opportunities and challenges presented by Namibia’s newfound oil wealth. However, to fully realise the potential benefits of its newfound oil wealth, Nandi-Ndaitwah will have to preside over the establishment of a comprehensive national strategy to ensure that oil exports contribute positively to Namibia’s development in the long run, making her presidency a potentially defining moment in the country’s modern history.
Positively, SWAPO’s 2024 election manifesto underpins her administration’s priorities, focusing heavily on the effective management of oil and gas resources. The party has committed to enacting comprehensive legislation to regulate the oil and gas sectors, emphasizing fair local ownership and participation. Key initiatives include increasing financial support for NAMCOR under strict accountability measures, reserving quotas to fund social development, and prioritizing contracts for Namibian businesses in supplying goods and services to these industries. SWAPO also aims to attract job-creating foreign direct investments, develop local content policies, and conduct feasibility studies for a domestic oil refinery to maximise value addition. These policies reflect a broader ambition to ensure that oil revenues benefit all Namibians and contribute to long-term economic stability.
These commitments closely align with the goals of Vision 2030, Namibia’s long-term development framework launched under former President and founding member of SWAPO Sam Nujoma in 2004. In fact, Nandi-Ndaitwah directly references the initiative in her foreword in SWAPOS manifesto pledging to “steer Namibia towards the goals of Vision 2030”. The initiative itself provides a blueprint for the country’s long-term development, emphasizing economic diversification, poverty reduction, and sustainable growth. The discovery of vast oil reserves has the potential to accelerate progress toward these goals, but only if managed effectively. Critics, however, cite that by reiterating Namibia's commitment to vision 2030, Nandi-Ndaitwah is merely regurgitating an unrealistic and dated vision. Critics question whether the party’s promises will translate into tangible outcomes. To this end, the challenge lies not only in formulating policies but in ensuring their effective implementation and enforcement. President-elect Nandi-Ndaitwah must grapple with the Vision 2030 initiative and ensure it aligns with the realities and implications of Namibia’s recent oil discoveries.
Namibia’s mining sector, which made up 14.4% of GDP in 2023, provides valuable lessons in managing its burgeoning oil and gas industry. While foreign investments have been instrumental in driving growth and infrastructure development, they have also highlighted critical challenges which policy makers must take note of when constructing policy on how to address oil exploitation. The challenges of foreign influences in Namibia's mining sector are epitomised by the role of China, who uses the sector as a geopolitical tool forming part of its wider global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The exploitative nature of Chinese policy in Namibia’s mining sector transcends into many factors. While Chinese investment has brought economic benefits, it has also catalysed Namibian dependency on foreign capital and expertise, which could undermine Namibia’s long-term economic sovereignty and self-sufficiency. This economic dependence, through a heavy reliance on uranium mining, makes Namibia vulnerable to global uranium price fluctuations. For example, uranium prices fell from $72 per pound in 2011 to $24 per pound in 2017, directly impacting revenues from the sector. This dependency is coupled with local labour exploitation. Chinese involvement reinforces widely prevalent and pre-existing inequalities, particularly for the Namibian minority communities in the Erongo Region living near uranium mines, namely the Damara, Herero and Nama communities, who have raised concerns over environmental contamination, displacement, and the lack of benefits from the mining activities. The benefits are not evenly distributed and often concentrated among a small group of well-connected Namibian elites, often linked to the ruling SWAPO party, leading to increased social and economic exclusion for the broader population. Evidently, the negatives of Chinese and by extension foreign influence are all too clear to see, foreshadowing how Namibia’s oil expansion could materialise as a resource curse rather than a blessing
More broadly, to reap the benefits of this newfound oil, Namibia and multinational corporations alike must navigate increasingly unstable supply routes. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and a resurgence of piracy in the Western Indian Ocean have once again brought the vulnerabilities of maritime supply chains into the global spotlight, highlighting the persistent threats to critical shipping routes. Whilst Namibia's proximity to Europe via the Cape of Good Hope shipping route positions it as a practical and efficient alternative, these threats however are not exclusive to West Africa’s coast and potential exporters of refined products such as TotalEnergies and Shell must consider the dangers of operating in East African waters.
The oil exportation supply chain is forecasted to begin in Walvis Bay, Namibia’s primary port. With minimal security risks, modernised infrastructure, and competitive operational costs, Walvis Bay is poised to become a critical hub for refined oil exports. Walvis Bay’s viability is heightened by the Namibian Ports Authority (Namport) 2024 commitment to support the southern African country’s burgeoning energy industry through a $2.1 billion port infrastructure expansion project, which will involve the construction of new berths and quay walls in Walvis Bay as well as the construction of a new port in the town of Lüderitz. The project, according to Namport CEO Andrew Kanime, is scheduled to be completed within three years, expecting to commence in the last quarter 2025. This expansion significantly strengthens Namibia’s viability as a preferred location for Western corporations seeking reliable and secure export routes. The enhanced infrastructure, along with the country’s strategic geographical positioning and stable political environment, makes Walvis Bay ideal for companies seeking a secure and efficient export hub.
Western companies, however, must recognise the emerging risks associated with exporting refined oil from Namibia’s coast. One of these is petro-piracy. As a subset of piracy, petro-piracy is defined as the illegal hijacking and theft or siphoning of oil or other petroleum products from ships, pipelines, and storage facilities. Tankers offer profitable targets for pirates as they contain a highly valuable commodity and play a crucial role in international energy trade, transporting crude oil. As seen in the Red Sea region, these attacks against offshore assets have far reaching consequences, causing long-term damage to industry supply chains. The Gulf of Guinea, which stretches from Senegal to Angola, serves as a vital maritime route to Europe, connecting Namibia alongside West and Central Africa as a whole to key global shipping lanes. It is imperative to acknowledge that in recent years the gulf has become a major hotspot of petroleum piracy, with there being a constant risk for those operating in the region. The Gulf of Guinea accounts for 32% of globally reported piracy incidents and 50% of crew kidnapping cases. Comparatively to the Gulf of Aden, which is situated in one of the major East African oil supply routes, the west of Africa the focal point of the hijacking is usually around theft of product. The announcement of oil explorations and discoveries, combined with steadily rising market prices, is forecasted to see piracy rates climb due to criminal actors seeking to profit from stolen products sold on the global black oil market. This problem will only become more relevant in future years. With the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting a rise in global oil prices to $84 per barrel in 2025, the potential for lucrative returns on pirate attacks consequently becomes even more enticing.
That said, it must be acknowledged that several initiatives have been launched to combat the rising piracy threat, with the aim of improving maritime security and ensuring the safe passage of vessels in the region. This has been done through:
Increased Naval Patrols:
- Several countries in the Gulf of Guinea, including Nigeria, Cameroon, and Ghana, have bolstered their naval presence to patrol the waters more effectively. This has been supported by international partners, such as the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, who have provided training, resources, and funding to enhance the capabilities of local navies.
Regional Cooperation:
- There has been a concerted push for greater collaboration among the coastal nations of the Gulf of Guinea. In 2013, the Yaoundé Code of Conduct was signed by 25 African nations to strengthen cooperation on maritime security in the region. This code of conduct includes measures such as joint patrols, information sharing, and coordinated responses to piracy incidents. Regional bodies, like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Gulf of Guinea Commission (GGC), have also been central in fostering collaboration to reduce piracy and protect vital shipping routes.
International Partnerships:
- The international community, including the EU and the United States, has worked closely with Gulf of Guinea countries to improve regional maritime security. The EU, for example, has funded initiatives like the Critical Maritime Routes program, which focuses on improving surveillance and response mechanisms in piracy-prone areas. The U.S. Navy also runs programs in the region, offering training to local forces and supporting joint operations against piracy.
This ongoing international support and regional cooperation is expected to further improve security in the region, making it a more viable route for oil exports over time. When comparing the overall risks of using the Gulf of Guinea against the Red Sea for transit, both present significant challenges, but the Gulf of Guinea stands out as the more viable option despite its own risks. The Red Sea route, though critical for oil exports from the Middle East and East Africa to Europe and Asia, is fraught with persistent instability. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a major chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is a hotspot for Houthi rebel attacks, who have targeted oil tankers and commercial vessels in the region. The geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other Middle Eastern powers add to the uncertainty, with the potential for naval confrontations or blockades disrupting maritime traffic. Furthermore, the Suez Canal, while vital for trade, remains vulnerable to blockages or sabotage, as highlighted by the 2021 Ever Given incident, which brought global shipping to a standstill for several days. These combined factors make the Red Sea route unpredictable and risky for oil exports. While admittedly it is currently a piracy hotspot, the Gulf of Guinea’s overall risks are more geographically confined than the broader geopolitical instability in the Red Sea. This, combined ongoing international efforts to enhance the region's security means the Gulf of Guinea offers a more manageable risk profile compared to the broader more complex nature of conflict in the Red Sea and thus a key artery for Namibian oil exports to Europe.
For Europe, at a time of increased energy insecurity driven by the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, supply disruptions in the Middle East, and the urgent need to reduce dependence on volatile regions, Namibia’s recent discovery of substantial oil reserves also heralds a significant opportunity to diversify its energy imports, offering an alternative market that is more stable, reliable, and geopolitically favorable compared to existing suppliers. The Middle East, while a dominant player in global oil exports, is fraught with persistent instability. Ongoing conflicts, such as the Yemeni civil war, coupled with heightened tensions between Iran and Gulf nations, create an unpredictable energy landscape. The region’s vulnerability is merely exacerbated by the dangers posed by the use of the aforementioned critical shipping routes, like the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Both of these routes are frequently at risk of disruption, as demonstrated by Houthi attacks on vessels and geopolitical flare-ups that threaten global oil supply chains. At the same time, Europe’s shift away from Russian energy imports following the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions has left a significant gap in its energy supply. Russia has historically used its energy exports as a tool of political leverage, exemplified by its decision to cut gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline in 2022 to pressure European nations, and its halting of supplies to Poland and Bulgaria after they refused to pay for gas in rubles, and the European Union’s move to cut ties with Russian oil and gas reflects an urgent need to secure alternative stable sources. However, replacing such a major supplier has proven challenging, particularly as global energy markets remain tight and competition for reliable suppliers intensifies.
Thus, Namibia’s emergence as a potential European energy partner represents more than just an additional source of oil, it is an unmissable opportunity to build a long-term strategic relationship with a country that aligns with European values of transparency, governance, and environmental stewardship. Indeed, the foundations are already there, with the EU in 2023 endorsing €1 billion in investments for a strategic partnership with Namibia on sustainable raw materials, value chains and renewable hydrogen. This existing framework arguably offers a proven mechanism for integrating oil within a broader, more diversified energy strategy, something which could be crucial in securing a strategic oil partnership. This partnership would not only enhance Europe’s energy security but also reduce its exposure to the geopolitical risks associated with Middle Eastern instability and Russian aggression. Namibia’s oil reserves could help Europe create a more resilient energy network while supporting sustainable economic development in a politically stable region of Africa, ensuring mutual benefits for both parties in the long term.
Likewise, for TotalEnergies, Namibia’s Venus-1 oil discovery represents a transformative opportunity to solidify its position as a global leader in energy production while aligning with its long-term strategy of investing in high-potential, frontier markets. Having demonstrated this in Mozambique, where it played a pivotal role in developing the nation's extraction of LNG in Cabo Delgado, TotalEnergies now has the chance to replicate its success in Namibia by capitalising on the largest oil discovery in Sub-Saharan Africa’s history. Establishing a strong presence in Namibia allows the company to leverage its expertise in offshore exploration and production while gaining access to neighboring markets and fostering regional energy integration. Namibia’s political stability, favorable regulatory environment, and proximity to global shipping lanes offer TotalEnergies a secure base for operations and a strategic gateway to Europe and other key markets. As the country accelerates infrastructure development to meet the demands of its emerging oil industry, TotalEnergies is well-positioned to play a leading role in helping Namibia unlock its vast energy potential while strengthening its own global production portfolio.
In light of these considerations, Namibia's policymakers must not only demonstrate a commitment to learning from past missteps but also adopt a pragmatic and forward-thinking approach to ensure that future oil projects are managed in a way that safeguards the nation’s long-term prosperity. The following key policy recommendations will help Namibia craft a strategy that both leverages its newfound resources and protects against the pitfalls that have hindered other resource-rich nations. Enact Comprehensive Legislation:
- Enacting comprehensive legislation to regulate Namibia’s oil and gas sectors is essential for ensuring the country maximises its benefits while safeguarding against the risks of resource dependency. SWAPO’s manifesto emphasises the need for a robust legal framework to manage the industry, highlighting the importance of local ownership and participation. It calls for the enactment of laws that ensure Namibians have a fair share in the oil and gas industries, ensuring that they benefit from the extraction of these natural resources. This includes promoting local content policies, supporting job creation, and increasing local investments in the sector. The manifesto also stresses the importance of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) while ensuring that foreign companies contribute fairly to the country’s economic development. By putting these legislative measures in place, Namibia can create a more equitable and sustainable framework for the oil and gas sector, ensuring long-term benefits for its people while minimizing the potential negative effects of the resource curse.
Increase Local Participation:
- Policies should prioritise the inclusion of Namibians in the supply chain and workforce of the oil and gas industry. Enhancing local involvement not only boosts the economy but also helps mitigate the risks of over-reliance on foreign companies. This notion has been proven in neighboring Botswana, where the government has ensured that local citizens benefit directly from diamond revenues through the Debswana mining company, a joint venture between the state and De Beers. In fact, Debswana, is one of the country’s largest employers, directly employing approximately 5,000 people whilst additionally helping to create thousands more jobs in related sectors, such as construction, transportation, and services. Thus, by increasing local participation, Namibia can ensure that the wealth generated from its resources stays within the country, creating jobs, supporting local businesses, and contributing to broader economic development.
Strengthen NAMCOR's Role:
- Strengthening NAMCOR's role in Namibia’s oil and gas sector is vital for ensuring national ownership and control over its petroleum resources. As the state-owned entity responsible for managing these resources, a stronger NAMCOR would enable Namibia to maintain greater involvement in exploration, production, and revenue management, reducing dependence on foreign companies. This would also allow for greater local participation, creating opportunities for Namibians to benefit directly through jobs, services, and supply contracts. Deputy Minister of Mines and Energy, Kornelia Shilunga emphasised NAMCOR’s responsibility to enhance governance and transparency in its operations, encouraging collaboration among government, industry and entrepreneurs to ensure shared prosperity in Namibia’s oil and gas future. A subsequent more robust NAMCOR would improve transparency and accountability in the sector, ensuring that contracts and revenue allocations are handled responsibly.
Establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund:
- The Namibian government must finalise the completion of its sovereign wealth fund (SWF), dubbed “The Welwitschia Fund”, projected to be established by 2025 when it expects its first offshore oil project to be approved. Known for its mineral wealth, Namibia has considered creating a sovereign fund since 2009, with the discovery of oil as well as green hydrocarbon energy in the words of the Welwirschia’s pioneer former president Hage Geingob having the potential to exponentially “boost the funds capital”. Establishing a sovereign wealth fund dedicated to saving and investing oil revenues can help Namibia stabilise its economy against price volatility while safeguarding resources for future generations. A relevant example policy makers could draw parallels from is Ghana’s SWF. Ghana splits its oil revenues between a stabilization fund (for short-term economic shocks) and a heritage fund (for long-term savings), ensuring balanced use of resources. The establishment of a SWF in such a fashion would ensure that Namibia's newfound oil wealth translates into long-term economic stability and intergenerational equity.
To conclude, Namibia stands at a critical juncture in its history, with the discovery of its substantial oil reserves in the Venus-1 field offering both immense opportunity and significant challenges. The Namibian government now has the responsibility of determining whether this discovery will become a cornerstone for sustainable development or another chapter in Africa’s long history of resource mismanagement. Avoiding the pitfalls of the resource curse requires strong political will, institutional reforms, and a pragmatic yet ambitious approach to resource governance.
Drawing lessons from its mining sector, Namibia must prioritise reducing over-dependence on foreign players and ensuring that its oil wealth benefits the broader population rather than a select few. Past experiences with Chinese investment in uranium mining highlight the risks of environmental degradation, labor exploitation, and economic dependency. The oil sector must avoid repeating these mistakes by fostering a framework that emphasises transparency, accountability, and the equitable distribution of revenues. The strategic vision outlined in SWAPO’s manifesto provides a strong starting point, particularly its focus on increasing local participation, strengthening state-owned enterprises like NAMCOR, and enacting comprehensive legislation to regulate the oil and gas sector. By ensuring that Namibian citizens play a central role in the industry’s supply chain and workforce, the government can help mitigate the risks of foreign dominance while building domestic capacity. Additionally, the establishment of the Welwitschia Fund as a sovereign wealth fund is an essential step in safeguarding oil revenues for future generations and stabilizing the economy against price fluctuations, with Ghana’s model serving as an exemplary framework.
However, these policies alone will not suffice without a steadfast commitment to effective implementation and enforcement. Namibia’s policymakers must go beyond rhetoric and demonstrate tangible progress in areas such as infrastructure development, governance reform, and revenue management. The transformative leadership of President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah will be crucial in steering the nation toward realizing these goals. Her administration must rise to the occasion, ensuring that Vision 2030 is not just a symbolic pledge but a realistic blueprint for economic diversification, poverty reduction, and long-term prosperity. Namibia’s geographic and political stability, coupled with its commitment to modernizing infrastructure and leveraging its strategic location, also positions it as a key player in global energy markets. As Europe seeks to diversify its energy imports amidst geopolitical tensions with Russia and instability in the Middle East, Namibia has a unique opportunity to emerge as a reliable and secure energy partner. Investments in port expansions at Walvis Bay and Lüderitz further enhance its viability as a hub for refined oil exports, strengthening its appeal to Western corporations.
Ultimately, Namibia’s oil discovery has the potential to catalyse a new era of economic transformation, but only if its resources are managed with foresight and integrity. The stakes are undeniably high, but so too are the opportunities. With a commitment to transparency, inclusive governance, and strategic planning, Namibia can not only avoid the resource curse but also become a model for sustainable resource management in Africa. If these principles are upheld, Namibia's newfound oil wealth could serve as a catalyst for the country’s aspirations under Vision 2030, creating a legacy of shared prosperity and economic resilience for generations to come.
