“Our country may be small, but our people think big. Our ideas will not be limited by the limits of our borders," said Rwandan President Paul Kagame, a statement that perfectly encapsulates Rwanda’s bold approach to its role on the African continent. Since the accession of Kagame in 1994, the tiny central African nation has developed an outsized role in the region, evermore seeing itself as 'Africa's Policeman'. Rwanda's decisive intervention in Mozambique’s conflict has sparked intense debate, with its actions raising pressing questions about the true nature of its involvement. Whilst Rwanda’s forces have indeed stabilised the insurgency ravaged Cabo Delgado province, where both Mozambique’s own military, private military contractors (PMCs), and even the Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces struggled to regain control, there remains a more malevolent undertone, with their intervention serving its own selfish political and economic interests. This article examines both sides of Rwanda’s involvement from a cooperative ally to a neo-imperialist intervention, while ultimately exploring what the Mozambican government as well as international corporations operating in the region, such as Total Energies, can do to enhance their security and development strategy.
Why China is having to reevaluate and reshape the Belt and Road Initiative
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) took the developing world by storm and its rivals by surprise. In just a decade, Xi Jinping’s flagship foreign policy initiative expanded to 150 countries and surpassed 1 trillion dollars in cumulative engagement. Originally conceived as a means to export China’s domestic overcapacity in construction, the BRI has since evolved into a sprawling network of infrastructure projects, trade agreements, and financial partnerships. The initiative has successfully strengthened China’s global influence and positioned it as a formidable economic and diplomatic power. Today, China is no longer just an emerging power; it is regarded as a “near-peer soft power competitor” with the US. However, as the BRI enters its second decade, China’s approach is undergoing a major transformation. Faced with domestic economic challenges, Beijing is recalibrating its strategy, but this will only highlight deeper structural flaws within the initiative. Corruption scandals, project failures, and the growing cost of restructuring loans for partner nations have damaged Beijing’s reputation and placed an unsustainable burden on China’s already strained finances. Whilst Beijing remains committed to the BRI, its execution has shifted, creating opportunities for some nations but leaving others behind. This article examines how China is reshaping the BRI in response to domestic economic challenges. It will also assess China’s evolving role as a development partner, highlighting how its economic priorities impact its overseas commitments.
Green transition is the topic of the time in the west. Both the United States, United Kingdom and European Union have pushed renewable energy, electric vehicles and net zero at the top of their agendas in the last five years, with resolutions made at COP28 tripling down upon commitments made during the Paris agreement further exemplifying this global transition. Despite this global initiative being largely diplomatically led by the west, the real victor in this transition is China. China has become “the green dragon” a manufacturing powerhouse supplying the vast majority of the world’s newfound demand for renewables, furthering its economic growth and increasing global reliance on Chinese trade in the backdrop of the US-China trade war. By accepting China as the “green hegemon” the west would be left at the mercy of Chinese trade becoming reliant on Chinese technology to build and maintain a net zero economy and by extension have to make geopolitical concessions in order to maintain good trade relations. In this article our analysts assess the extent of Chinese dominance of the green industrial sector, the consequences of said dominance and policy options that could be explored by western governments to mitigate the resulting political and economic risks.
The potential for a new Balkan war is looming. The war in Ukraine, declining US influence, and a global shift towards multipolarity, has once again placed the region firmly into a potential frontline of conflicting ambition between East and West. However, accession into the EU could present a unique opportunity for preventing a regional conflict. Via frictionless borders, equalising economic development & integration, acting as a quasi-Yugoslavia, the EU could be the beacon of hope that the Balkans has been yearning for.
Your supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link: extraneous circumstances can quickly plunge even the strongest economies into disarray, as recently proven by COVID-19. Fortunately for the economies of the world, the coronavirus was indiscriminate in its economic impact, leaving the leading economies of the world with mostly the same struggles and as a result not creating significant economic-geopolitical shifts. South Korea however now finds itself at the frontline of the US-Chinese trade war, where escalation could cause significant supply chain disruptions - an extraneous variable which would leave the South Korean economy in a uniquely difficult situation. The likelihood of a second Trump presidency will only reignite and accelerate the intensity of the US-Chinese trade war, with an increase in tariffs, sanctions and geopolitical escalation meaning South Korea must act swiftly.
